Tom Nash

Palantir exhibits strong fundamentals with a 60% increase in revenue over the past year (from $2.9 billion to $4.5 billion), a remarkable 200% surge in operating margin (from 10.8% to 31.6%), and significant growth in free cash flow (+84%), assets (+40%), and cash (+40%), alongside a 4% reduction in debt. Despite this impressive performance, the stock has lagged the S&P 500 over the past year and trades significantly below its 52-week high, indicating a market misunderstanding. Institutional shareholders have actively increased their holdings by 85% over the past three years, signaling 'smart money' conviction. This combination of improving business quality, undervalued pricing, and institutional accumulation while retail sentiment is shaky, identifies Palantir as a prime investment opportunity.

Amazon has demonstrated strong business improvement over the past five years, with revenue increasing by 80% from $400 billion to $716 billion (projected 2026), cash up 46%, assets up 154%, and operating margins nearly doubling from 5.9% to 11.2%. Despite this robust fundamental growth, the stock's price-to-sales ratio has only increased by 6.2%, and its forward P/E has actually dropped by 12.5%, leading to a significant 64% lag behind the S&P 500. The perceived issue of high capital expenditures and low free cash flow is deemed a misunderstanding, as it represents strategic investment in AWS and cloud infrastructure, positioning Amazon for continued dominance in the AI era. This disparity between strong underlying business performance and stagnant stock pricing presents a generational buying opportunity for patient investors.

Microsoft is presented as a strong investment opportunity, despite its stock price being down 2% over the last 12 months, significantly lagging the S&P 500's 12% gain. The company's fundamentals are robust, with revenue up 15%, operating margin at a healthy 45% (+3%), assets increasing by 21%, cash by 25%, and debt reducing by 10%. Furthermore, its forward P/E and price-to-sales ratios have decreased by 10% and 5% respectively year-over-year, making it cheaper despite improved performance. The market's skepticism regarding Microsoft's dependence on OpenAI, regulatory concerns, and 'AI fatigue' is viewed as a misunderstanding. Microsoft is positioned as a cloud giant with strong distribution, capable of leveraging the AI revolution through its Azure services and extensive business software, irrespective of individual large language model commoditization. The current valuation does not reflect its strong market position and future growth potential.

The host strongly refutes Michael Burry's bearish arguments, asserting that Palantir is fundamentally a scalable software company, not a consulting business. He highlights Palantir's elite gross margins (80%), revenue growth (60%), and free cash flow margins (50%) as mathematical proofs against the consulting thesis, arguing these indicate strong software economics and efficient operations. He also counters claims of 'marketing hype' by pointing to Palantir's two decades of R&D, early entry into the enterprise AI scene, and increasing client spending with high net dollar retention. The host explains that dilution from stock-based compensation is beneficial when it attracts 'superstars' who expand the company's overall value, as evidenced by Palantir's 1300% stock appreciation since 2020. Furthermore, Palantir is positioned as the crucial 'connective tissue' enabling AI deployment in real-world business by addressing compliance, cost, security, and business improvement, making it agnostic to specific hardware or LLMs. Its significant and stable government contracts provide macro-agnostic revenue, further solidifying its long-term potential as an 'operating system AI monopoly.' While acknowledging short-term price volatility, the host expresses confidence in buying more if the stock dips.

The host maintains a bullish long-term stance on Palantir, viewing its history of significant price drops (e.g., 20% drops 10 times, 50% in Feb 2023, 83% in 2022) as typical market volatility. He highlights Palantir's substantial 2,200% return since 2023 as evidence of its underlying strength, arguing that such volatility presents opportunities for disciplined investors using a dollar-cost averaging and double-down strategy to build wealth.

NVIDIA is considered one of the best stocks in the market for long-term investors. Despite experiencing significant price fluctuations and dips, its historical performance, including a +1,173% return over the past five years, demonstrates the power of holding a fundamentally strong business through periods of volatility. The host implies that short-term price movements should not deter investors from good companies.

The host maintains a bullish long-term outlook on the S&P 500 (implicitly referring to SPY), emphasizing that despite short-term market corrections and volatility (which are normal and expected), the average annual return over the long term is around 10%. He uses the S&P 500's 80% return over the past five years as an example of sustained growth. The discussion highlights the risk inversion of holding cash (due to inflation) versus investing in broad market indices, encouraging a disciplined, consistent investment approach rather than attempting to time the market.

The host expresses strong bullish sentiment for Palantir (PLTR), viewing recent price declines as short-term market volatility rather than fundamental issues. He highlights that despite recent drops (16% in a month, 9% in five days), Palantir's long-term performance has been exceptional (up 2400% in three years, 100% in 12 months). The company demonstrates robust fundamentals, including high profitability (85/100), growth (91/100), solvency (75/100), 43.5% net income growth, and a 16.3% net margin. The host advises 'smart investors' to focus on these strong underlying business metrics and use price dips as opportunities to buy more shares, especially given recent positive deal announcements and the absence of any negative business news. He explicitly recommends buying during these periods of irrational fear, noting that it's "never a bad time to buy a great company."

The host presents a strongly bullish case for Tesla, arguing that its recent earnings call signals a pivotal shift from being primarily an automotive company to a leader in AI, robotics, and energy. He emphasizes that Elon Musk's strategic decision to sacrifice short-term automotive margins and focus on massive investments in new technologies, such as Optimus bot production starting in 2026, robotaxis, and unlimited energy storage demand, will position Tesla for long-term market dominance. The automotive sector is viewed as a cash cow to fund these future 'S-curves' which are expected to create monopolies due to network effects and recurring software revenue, similar to a 'printer versus ink' business model. The host dismisses short-term concerns about declining automotive sales and margins, asserting that these are intentional steps in a larger, transformative pivot. He predicts significant stock price appreciation, with bull case targets of $4,800 by 2030 (1,000% upside) and $7,900 by 2035 (1,700% upside), urging investors to understand this fundamental shift beyond mainstream narratives.