Mentions

The US Dollar has experienced significant degradation, losing 96% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve's creation in 1913. The speaker highlights the government's escalating debt servicing costs, now exceeding the entire military budget, and the Federal Reserve's money printing policies as drivers of this quiet erosion of wealth. While not predicting an immediate collapse, the analysis indicates a slow but steady transfer of wealth from cash holders to asset owners, noting that the dollar is past the average lifespan of a reserve currency.

S&P Global is seen as a business with a strong, deep moat based on proprietary data and extensive manual data collection, which the host believes is not easily disrupted or replicated by artificial intelligence. Despite this, the stock has experienced significant selling due to market fears surrounding potential AI disruption. The host suggests the market is currently overreacting to the AI narrative for this particular company.

The host expresses a bearish sentiment on Walmart due to its extremely high valuation, with a trailing P/E of 46.63 and a forward P/E of 46.40. This is considered excessive given its relatively slow growth, with both revenue and earnings compounding at approximately 5% annually over the last five years. Despite being perceived as a "safe" stock during market rotation, its current stock price appears significantly overvalued based on its fundamentals.

The host is bearish on Costco due to its "extremely, extremely high" valuation multiples, with a trailing P/E of 54.45 and a forward P/E of 48.27. Although Costco exhibits stronger growth than Walmart, with revenue compounding at about 10.5% and earnings at 15.6% annually since 2020, this valuation is still deemed excessive for its growth profile.

PepsiCo receives a bearish rating from the host due to its high valuation (trailing P/E of 27.58) coupled with negligible underlying business growth. Its revenue has only compounded by approximately 1.7-3% annually in recent years, with earnings remaining largely flat over the past 13 years. Furthermore, sales volume has been declining since 2022, indicating that recent revenue increases are primarily attributable to price hikes rather than organic growth, which is viewed as an unfavorable trend.

Intuit is viewed bullishly as a stock that Joseph Carlson, and by extension the host, believes is a compelling "dip buying opportunity." The rationale is that Intuit is trading at its lowest valuation in over a decade and operates within a highly regulated and compliance-heavy industry. This makes its products and services particularly difficult for AI to disrupt or threaten, suggesting a more resilient business model against the current AI-driven market fears.

The host expresses a bearish outlook on Adobe, perceiving it as a software company highly susceptible to AI disruption. He notes that despite the stock now trading below his initial purchase price from 2022, he is not actively buying. The core reasoning is that AI-generated content tools are rapidly improving and becoming more accessible, which is expected to reduce the total addressable market for traditional editing software like Adobe's. This technological shift poses a significant long-term risk to Adobe's business model.

The host is bullish on Meta Platforms, highlighting its successful integration of AI for video ad generation. Meta's new video generation tools are already generating a $10 billion run rate in Q4, significantly outpacing overall ad revenue growth. This capability allows Meta to lower the barrier for advertisers to create content directly on its platform, strengthening its moat in advertising. With its vast data and distribution network, Meta is strategically positioned to benefit from the convergence of content creation and ad automation through AI.

The host expresses a strong bullish sentiment towards Constellation Software, believing that its business model is highly resilient to artificial intelligence disruption and is, in fact, well-positioned to benefit from AI. He highlights that software vendors themselves are ideally suited to leverage AI for creating new code and enhancing their offerings, which aligns perfectly with Constellation Software's strategy. This robust positioning gives CSU and its family of stocks a significant advantage in the evolving technological landscape.

This ETF is recommended for 'Growth Optimist' investors whose portfolios are heavily concentrated in US tech and growth stocks. VXUS offers crucial geographic diversification by investing in over 8,000 global stocks outside the US, spanning various sectors like healthcare, materials, industrials, and consumer goods. It is presented as a value play, trading at a 22% discount to US stocks, and provides currency diversification, which can protect against a weakening US dollar. The fund previously outperformed US stocks with a 32% return.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF is suggested for investors who might mistakenly believe their VOO (S&P 500) heavy portfolio is diversified, but it's actually concentrated in a few mega-cap tech stocks. RSP addresses this by equally weighting all 500 companies in the S&P 500, reducing concentration risk and providing greater exposure to smaller and mid-sized companies and value stocks. This approach historically performs better when interest rates are high or when market rotations occur out of growth names. RSP has recently shown stronger performance compared to the market-cap weighted VOO.

The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF is recommended for 'All-Stock' investors to diversify across asset classes and mitigate volatility risk. BND holds over 11,000 bonds, including US Treasuries and corporate bonds, which are driven by interest rates and credit rather than stock market earnings, thus providing a different risk profile. Bonds tend to hold up better during recessions and can even produce positive returns when interest rates fall, as demonstrated during the pandemic crash where BND saw a positive return. It also provides a 4% dividend yield, offering a source of income and cash to buy into stocks during market downturns.

The State Street Real Estate Select Sector SPDR ETF offers 'All-Stock' investors a way to diversify beyond traditional stocks into real estate assets. This fund invests in properties like data centers, cell towers, and warehouses, generating real income from rents. While its price may track the stock market, real estate helps smooth out overall portfolio risk, rebounds quickly, and provides significant cash flow through a 3.3% dividend yield. It offers stability and income that pure stock portfolios often lack, particularly during market downturns.

NVIDIA maintains a dominant position in the AI market, driven by its advanced GPUs and the comprehensive CUDA software ecosystem, which creates significant barriers for competitors. The company consistently reports robust data center revenue growth, expanding gross margins, and a strong backlog for its AI chips, indicating sustained high demand. While traditional valuation metrics might suggest the stock is expensive, the host believes its strong forward earnings growth, continuous reinvestment in R&D, and vast total addressable market in AI justify current multiples. Additional growth levers include its Omniverse platform and the automotive segment. The host expresses a highly bullish sentiment, recommending buying the stock on any dips.

AMD is recognized as a competitor to NVIDIA in the AI space with its MI300X chips, which offer competitive performance on a per-chip basis. However, AMD faces substantial challenges in disrupting NVIDIA's stronghold due to the latter's established CUDA software ecosystem and first-mover advantage, making integration difficult for customers. While AMD is expanding its market share from a relatively small base and demonstrates strength in other areas like CPUs and gaming GPUs, it is perceived as playing catch-up in the high-end enterprise AI training market. The host concludes that AMD does not pose an existential threat to NVIDIA's AI dominance in the near term and maintains a neutral stance regarding AMD's specific prospects in AI.

Palantir exhibits strong fundamentals with a 60% increase in revenue over the past year (from $2.9 billion to $4.5 billion), a remarkable 200% surge in operating margin (from 10.8% to 31.6%), and significant growth in free cash flow (+84%), assets (+40%), and cash (+40%), alongside a 4% reduction in debt. Despite this impressive performance, the stock has lagged the S&P 500 over the past year and trades significantly below its 52-week high, indicating a market misunderstanding. Institutional shareholders have actively increased their holdings by 85% over the past three years, signaling 'smart money' conviction. This combination of improving business quality, undervalued pricing, and institutional accumulation while retail sentiment is shaky, identifies Palantir as a prime investment opportunity.

Amazon has demonstrated strong business improvement over the past five years, with revenue increasing by 80% from $400 billion to $716 billion (projected 2026), cash up 46%, assets up 154%, and operating margins nearly doubling from 5.9% to 11.2%. Despite this robust fundamental growth, the stock's price-to-sales ratio has only increased by 6.2%, and its forward P/E has actually dropped by 12.5%, leading to a significant 64% lag behind the S&P 500. The perceived issue of high capital expenditures and low free cash flow is deemed a misunderstanding, as it represents strategic investment in AWS and cloud infrastructure, positioning Amazon for continued dominance in the AI era. This disparity between strong underlying business performance and stagnant stock pricing presents a generational buying opportunity for patient investors.

Microsoft is presented as a strong investment opportunity, despite its stock price being down 2% over the last 12 months, significantly lagging the S&P 500's 12% gain. The company's fundamentals are robust, with revenue up 15%, operating margin at a healthy 45% (+3%), assets increasing by 21%, cash by 25%, and debt reducing by 10%. Furthermore, its forward P/E and price-to-sales ratios have decreased by 10% and 5% respectively year-over-year, making it cheaper despite improved performance. The market's skepticism regarding Microsoft's dependence on OpenAI, regulatory concerns, and 'AI fatigue' is viewed as a misunderstanding. Microsoft is positioned as a cloud giant with strong distribution, capable of leveraging the AI revolution through its Azure services and extensive business software, irrespective of individual large language model commoditization. The current valuation does not reflect its strong market position and future growth potential.

Brookfield Corporation demonstrated strong underlying operating results in Q4 2025, with distributable earnings before realizations increasing by 11% year-over-year for the full year. The underlying asset management and wealth solutions segments showed robust growth, with fee-related earnings up 22% and wealth solutions' distributable earnings up 24%. The company is strategically focused on long-term infrastructure investments, particularly in power generation to support the growing AI industry, securing significant partnerships with major tech firms. Management projects a re-acceleration of earnings in the second half of 2026, with 17-25% CAGR in distributable earnings expected through 2030, exceeding previous targets. The host believes the stock is currently undervalued despite trading near all-time highs, with a discounted cash flow analysis indicating significant upside potential, and maintains a strong bullish stance, planning to add to his position on any corrections.

Meta Platforms is identified as a highly attractive investment opportunity, despite a recent market correction. The company reported stellar Q4 results with accelerating revenue growth projected to reach 30% in Q1. Meta is generating record operating cash flow and achieving positive returns on its capital expenditures, primarily driven by successful AI integration that is significantly boosting user engagement, ad performance, and enabling new product innovations like AI agents and Ray-Ban Meta Glasses. Both internal analysis and external endorsements, such as Bill Ackman's investment thesis, highlight Meta's strong positioning for long-term earnings growth, with current valuation suggesting significant undervaluation.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is presented as a robust and undervalued e-commerce giant, despite a recent 22% correction, which the host believes is an excellent buying opportunity. The company exhibits exceptionally strong revenue growth (around 40% annually) and holds a dominant market position as the top shopping app in Brazil. A strategic decision to lower shipping thresholds in Q4 successfully drove massive user acquisition, and margins are now expected to expand as the company implements new fee structures. Analysts anticipate continued market share gains in the Latin American e-commerce landscape. A conservative discounted cash flow analysis further underscores its undervaluation and potential for high future returns.

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) delivered record results in 2025, driven by strong fundraising and significant increases in fee-related and distributable earnings (28% and 18% year-over-year, respectively). The company's margins have expanded to an all-time high. Management projects sustained 20% annual earnings growth for the next five years, fueled by its strategic investments in infrastructure and private equity, particularly leveraging demand from the AI infrastructure buildout, which drives unprecedented demand for power and data centers. BAM is considered well-positioned to benefit from these powerful secular tailwinds and is currently undervalued according to discounted cash flow analysis.

Brookfield Corporation (BN) is viewed as undervalued based on its growth prospects and current market price. The presenter explicitly states his personal preference for BN due to its growth-focused nature, as opposed to Brookfield Asset Management's (BAM) income focus, and holds BN in his portfolio. BN is projected to deliver significant long-term total returns, with a conservative discounted cash flow analysis indicating a fair value well above its current trading price, offering over 22% compounded annual growth. This outlook is supported by management's confidence in achieving 20% annual earnings growth.

Constellation Software (CSU.TO) is seen as a high-quality business currently experiencing an unjustified market sell-off within the software sector, making it an attractive 'drop-dead price' opportunity. The company's fundamentals, including revenue and free cash flow, are at all-time highs and continue to grow robustly. Constellation is actively leveraging AI to develop new products like Stella AI for homebuilders and is securing large cybersecurity contracts with European governments through its branches. This strategy positions it as a net benefactor, rather than a victim, of AI. A conservative discounted cash flow model indicates significant undervaluation, with potential for substantial annual returns.

Topicus.com Inc. (TOI.V), a spin-off subsidiary of Constellation Software, is presented as an undervalued growth opportunity, particularly in the European market. The company is actively securing significant cybersecurity contracts with governments in the Netherlands, demonstrating its ability to leverage Constellation's established playbook. Despite broad market fears surrounding the software sector, Topicus is strategically leveraging artificial intelligence to build new products and agents, positioning it to benefit from AI rather than being disrupted. A conservative discounted cash flow analysis, which accounts for its smaller base compared to Constellation, suggests it is significantly undervalued and capable of delivering high compounded annual growth rates.

The host has sold most of his Tesla stock due to several significant concerns. He notes Tesla's earnings performance has been abysmal and in decline for the past two years, contrasting sharply with the overall market where many other companies have seen record growth. He argues that Tesla, despite being considered a tech company, has lagged significantly in performance compared to other 'Magnificent Seven' tech giants, while still trading at an irrationally high valuation. A further red flag is Tesla's consistent lack of formal guidance for future performance, which he interprets as either management trying to prevent a sell-off due to poor expectations or simply having no clear vision for the company's future amidst ongoing transitions. While he retains a speculative portion of his shares due to a low average cost and the potential of unproven ventures like robotaxis, he no longer views Tesla as a core holding.

Amphenol (APH) is presented as a strong buy due to its leadership in interconnect solutions, strong revenue growth (31% expected), and robust operating margins (24%) which have improved by nearly 5% over the past five years. The host emphasizes the company's competitive advantages and strong market position across diverse sectors like automotive, aerospace, defense, and industrial, suggesting a positive long-term outlook beyond one-year price targets.

TE Connectivity (TEL) is recommended as a strong stock within the electrical connectors and components industry, having seen a 50% increase in share price over the past year. It boasts strong competitive advantages, with an expected 26% revenue growth and 18% operating margins, which have improved by 4% over the last five years. While its growth and margins are slightly lower than Amphenol, its valuation is considered more attractive at half the price-to-sales ratio. Analysts show confidence, with an average price target of $278.50 (21% upside) and even the lowest target of $244 offering a 6.5% upside.

Western Digital (WDC) has experienced a significant boom, with shares up over 400% in the last year, driven by memory shortages and the AI data center buildout. The company is projected to achieve 79% revenue growth and 25% operating profitability, having increased its profitability by 25% over the past five years. Despite strong market demand and the company's ability to raise prices, analyst targets show some disagreement, with one bearish analyst setting a low target of $170, representing a significant downside. The host suggests waiting for a better buying opportunity.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is highlighted as a pure-play AI server maker with expansion into data center concierge services, which could significantly boost future margins. Despite a 21% decline and high volatility in its stock over the past year, the company boasts an impressive 87% expected revenue growth for the full year, following a 123% increase in the most recent quarter. The host emphasizes that its current operating profitability of 4.4% is due to aggressive pricing and increased R&D/marketing to capture market share, with the potential to raise prices and increase profitability significantly in the future. Despite a notably low price target from Goldman Sachs, which the host dismisses as potentially retaliatory, the stock is considered deeply undervalued at a 0.77 price-to-sales ratio, suggesting it could double in price.

Okta Inc (OKTA) is highlighted as a favored stock in the cybersecurity space, specifically in cloud identity and access management, holding the second-highest market share after Microsoft. The company is praised for its strong competitive advantages, particularly in customizable designs. While the cybersecurity segment isn't the highest growth, Okta is expected to achieve 22% revenue growth, and its operating profitability, though currently low at 3.9% due to high R&D spending, has increased by 33% over the last five years. Analyst price targets show significant upside, with an average of $115.29 (30% upside) and a high of $145 (64% upside), despite a low target of $75. The host suggests an options strategy of selling covered calls to reduce risk and generate income, further enhancing the appeal of this stock.

Nvidia (NVDA) is presented as the dominant AI stock, having surged 1300% over the last five years and 41% in the past year. Its leadership in GPU and accelerator design, coupled with its proprietary CUDA software stack and dominant semiconductor technology, provides a strong competitive advantage and recurring revenue. The company is expected to deliver 57% revenue growth this year, with an exceptional 59% operating margin, which is the highest in its industry and has grown by 26% over the last five years. Analyst price targets reflect strong bullish sentiment, with an average of $260.06 (37% upside) and a high of $352 (85% upside), suggesting significant continued growth.

Broadcom (AVGO) is identified as a top pick in the AI data center infrastructure theme due to its comprehensive provision of components like accelerators, chips, TPUs, networking, and storage devices, enabling effective cross-selling for higher margins. The company is projected to achieve 50% revenue growth this year with a robust 40% operating margin, having increased its profitability by 24% over the last five years. Analyst price targets are highly optimistic, with an average of $457.75 (33.40% upside) and a high of $525 (53% upside), indicating strong confidence in its continued performance within the rapidly growing AI market.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is viewed as a highly promising stock, positioned as a strong competitor to Nvidia in the chip market. The company is guided by its CEO towards a significant increase in operating margins to 30% over the next few years, a substantial improvement from its current 8.8%. With an impressive 60% revenue growth expected next year, surpassing even Nvidia's projections, AMD demonstrates a clear path to enhanced profitability. Analyst price targets suggest considerable upside, averaging $289.13 (34.19% upside) and reaching a high of $377 (74.87% upside), with the host confident that even a 20% operating margin will propel the stock much higher.

Ubiquiti (UI), a communication equipment provider specializing in wireless networking, routers, switches, and IoT connectivity, has seen a 91% increase in its stock price over the last year. It is considered a crucial "bottleneck" for AI data center server infrastructure. The company is expected to achieve 47% revenue growth and a 33% operating margin, effectively converting a third of its revenue into profits. However, the host notes that its valuation may be getting extended following its significant surge, and analysts show a mixed outlook with some downside potential, leading to a cautious stance despite strong fundamentals.

Arista Networks (ANET) is highlighted for its critical role in AI data center networking solutions, demonstrating strong competitive advantages through its low-latency, programmability, and EOS software. The company has seen a 19% increase in its stock over the past year. While its projected revenue growth is 27%, its operating profitability is an impressive 43%—the highest in its industry—and has improved by 10% over the last five years. Analyst outlook is highly positive, with an average price target of $172.88 (20.31% upside) and even the lowest target of $158 representing a 10.65% upside, reinforcing its strong bullish outlook.

The host presents a bearish outlook on the broader US equity market, especially rate-sensitive sectors and high-debt tech stocks. This is driven by Japan's new Prime Minister, Sanae Takaichi, whose policies are expected to lead to higher Japanese interest rates. This shift threatens the long-standing "carry trade" where Japanese investors borrowed cheaply to invest in US assets. As this trade unwinds, Japanese investors will be forced to sell US government debt and US equities, leading to increased US interest rates, higher borrowing costs for companies, and ultimately falling stock prices. The host explicitly advises reducing exposure to vulnerable US stock segments.

The host strongly refutes Michael Burry's bearish arguments, asserting that Palantir is fundamentally a scalable software company, not a consulting business. He highlights Palantir's elite gross margins (80%), revenue growth (60%), and free cash flow margins (50%) as mathematical proofs against the consulting thesis, arguing these indicate strong software economics and efficient operations. He also counters claims of 'marketing hype' by pointing to Palantir's two decades of R&D, early entry into the enterprise AI scene, and increasing client spending with high net dollar retention. The host explains that dilution from stock-based compensation is beneficial when it attracts 'superstars' who expand the company's overall value, as evidenced by Palantir's 1300% stock appreciation since 2020. Furthermore, Palantir is positioned as the crucial 'connective tissue' enabling AI deployment in real-world business by addressing compliance, cost, security, and business improvement, making it agnostic to specific hardware or LLMs. Its significant and stable government contracts provide macro-agnostic revenue, further solidifying its long-term potential as an 'operating system AI monopoly.' While acknowledging short-term price volatility, the host expresses confidence in buying more if the stock dips.

The host holds a strong bullish view on Alphabet, endorsing the analyst's perspective that it is destined to be a major winner in the AI space. He highlights the company's substantial cash reserves and its track record of successfully monetizing previous technological advancements, emphasizing that there will be multiple winners in AI, not just one. While acknowledging that the stock has reached a fair valuation, he suggests that any significant dips would present compelling buying opportunities.

The host expresses a highly bullish sentiment towards Palantir, strongly refuting the analyst's characterization of it as an expensive consulting business. He argues that Palantir's core value lies in its unique and powerful software, capable of advanced data analysis and integration, which he believes differentiates it significantly. Citing Palantir's consistent 'banger quarter' earnings, he asserts that the company deserves a higher valuation multiple and that Wall Street currently misunderstands its true potential, thus creating future investment opportunities.

Alamos Gold, a Canadian mid-tier producer with three mines in North America, is projected to achieve 46% production growth by 2028. Despite a notable risk of heavy capital expenditure between $850-940 million in 2026, its established production and favorable jurisdiction make it an attractive opportunity.

Fortuna Mining, which primarily generates revenue from gold despite its name, benefits from geographic diversification with mines in Côte d'Ivoire, Argentina, and Peru. The company anticipates 160-170K ounces of production from its Séguéla mine by 2026, though it faces risks related to potential production cliffs and political instability in some operating regions.

Galiano Gold is presented as a turnaround story, backed by a $17 million exploration budget in 2026 and impressive high-grade intercepts of 30.4 g/t over 4.2 meters. However, the company faces high risk due to its single-asset and single-country exposure in Ghana, making it a high-leverage play dependent on successful exploration.

New Found Gold shows spectacular grades of 508 g/t over 2.2 meters from its Canadian jurisdiction, significantly higher than typical gold deposits. Although it is a pre-revenue development story, implying high risk, its exceptional grades and stable operating environment offer massive upside potential.

Vista Gold possesses the largest undeveloped gold deposit at Mt Todd in Australia, supported by a feasibility study projecting a $1.1 billion NPV at $2,500 gold with a 27.8% IRR. Despite zero current revenue and a long timeline for production (estimated 2029-2030), its substantial resource in a stable jurisdiction offers significant long-term upside.

New Pacific Metals is highlighted as a significant silver play with massive undeveloped projects in Bolivia. The company has successfully removed illegal miners and secured court protection for its assets, indicating operational progress. However, it faces substantial country risk due to Bolivia's political environment and the inherent volatility of silver prices.

Alphabet's Google showcased strong financial performance by beating earnings and revenue expectations in the last quarter. The company announced significant plans to double its capital expenditure on AI infrastructure, projecting spending between $175-185 billion in 2026, up from $91-93 billion in 2025. This aggressive investment in AI models and data centers is seen as a major catalyst for future growth and a buying opportunity despite any recent market volatility.

BlackRock's significant exposure in the opaque private credit market, particularly through its TCP Capital Fund which suffered a 19% NAV loss in Q4 2025, is highlighted as a massive and under-recognized systemic threat. The firm's involvement in a derivatives market worth 'hundreds of trillions' further exacerbates concerns about potential domino effects within the banking system.

Meta Platforms experienced a significant jump in share price following stronger-than-expected revenue forecasts and robust fourth-quarter earnings. The company plans to substantially increase its capital expenditures for artificial intelligence, targeting $115-135 billion for 2026, which is double the amount spent in 2025. This massive investment into AI infrastructure, including Meta Superintelligence Labs, is viewed as a strong indicator for future growth and a buying opportunity.

Amazon's shares experienced a decline despite beating both earnings and revenue expectations, primarily due to the announcement of a nearly 60% increase in AI-related capital spending to $200 billion in 2026. The analyst views this market reaction as irrational, emphasizing that such significant investment in AI data centers, coupled with strong growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS), presents a clear buying opportunity as these expenditures are crucial for driving future AI capabilities and revenue.