Daniel Pronk

S&P Global is seen as a business with a strong, deep moat based on proprietary data and extensive manual data collection, which the host believes is not easily disrupted or replicated by artificial intelligence. Despite this, the stock has experienced significant selling due to market fears surrounding potential AI disruption. The host suggests the market is currently overreacting to the AI narrative for this particular company.

The host expresses a bearish sentiment on Walmart due to its extremely high valuation, with a trailing P/E of 46.63 and a forward P/E of 46.40. This is considered excessive given its relatively slow growth, with both revenue and earnings compounding at approximately 5% annually over the last five years. Despite being perceived as a "safe" stock during market rotation, its current stock price appears significantly overvalued based on its fundamentals.

The host is bearish on Costco due to its "extremely, extremely high" valuation multiples, with a trailing P/E of 54.45 and a forward P/E of 48.27. Although Costco exhibits stronger growth than Walmart, with revenue compounding at about 10.5% and earnings at 15.6% annually since 2020, this valuation is still deemed excessive for its growth profile.

PepsiCo receives a bearish rating from the host due to its high valuation (trailing P/E of 27.58) coupled with negligible underlying business growth. Its revenue has only compounded by approximately 1.7-3% annually in recent years, with earnings remaining largely flat over the past 13 years. Furthermore, sales volume has been declining since 2022, indicating that recent revenue increases are primarily attributable to price hikes rather than organic growth, which is viewed as an unfavorable trend.

Intuit is viewed bullishly as a stock that Joseph Carlson, and by extension the host, believes is a compelling "dip buying opportunity." The rationale is that Intuit is trading at its lowest valuation in over a decade and operates within a highly regulated and compliance-heavy industry. This makes its products and services particularly difficult for AI to disrupt or threaten, suggesting a more resilient business model against the current AI-driven market fears.

The host expresses a bearish outlook on Adobe, perceiving it as a software company highly susceptible to AI disruption. He notes that despite the stock now trading below his initial purchase price from 2022, he is not actively buying. The core reasoning is that AI-generated content tools are rapidly improving and becoming more accessible, which is expected to reduce the total addressable market for traditional editing software like Adobe's. This technological shift poses a significant long-term risk to Adobe's business model.

The host is bullish on Meta Platforms, highlighting its successful integration of AI for video ad generation. Meta's new video generation tools are already generating a $10 billion run rate in Q4, significantly outpacing overall ad revenue growth. This capability allows Meta to lower the barrier for advertisers to create content directly on its platform, strengthening its moat in advertising. With its vast data and distribution network, Meta is strategically positioned to benefit from the convergence of content creation and ad automation through AI.

The host expresses a strong bullish sentiment towards Constellation Software, believing that its business model is highly resilient to artificial intelligence disruption and is, in fact, well-positioned to benefit from AI. He highlights that software vendors themselves are ideally suited to leverage AI for creating new code and enhancing their offerings, which aligns perfectly with Constellation Software's strategy. This robust positioning gives CSU and its family of stocks a significant advantage in the evolving technological landscape.

Brookfield Corporation demonstrated strong underlying operating results in Q4 2025, with distributable earnings before realizations increasing by 11% year-over-year for the full year. The underlying asset management and wealth solutions segments showed robust growth, with fee-related earnings up 22% and wealth solutions' distributable earnings up 24%. The company is strategically focused on long-term infrastructure investments, particularly in power generation to support the growing AI industry, securing significant partnerships with major tech firms. Management projects a re-acceleration of earnings in the second half of 2026, with 17-25% CAGR in distributable earnings expected through 2030, exceeding previous targets. The host believes the stock is currently undervalued despite trading near all-time highs, with a discounted cash flow analysis indicating significant upside potential, and maintains a strong bullish stance, planning to add to his position on any corrections.

Meta Platforms is identified as a highly attractive investment opportunity, despite a recent market correction. The company reported stellar Q4 results with accelerating revenue growth projected to reach 30% in Q1. Meta is generating record operating cash flow and achieving positive returns on its capital expenditures, primarily driven by successful AI integration that is significantly boosting user engagement, ad performance, and enabling new product innovations like AI agents and Ray-Ban Meta Glasses. Both internal analysis and external endorsements, such as Bill Ackman's investment thesis, highlight Meta's strong positioning for long-term earnings growth, with current valuation suggesting significant undervaluation.

MercadoLibre (MELI) is presented as a robust and undervalued e-commerce giant, despite a recent 22% correction, which the host believes is an excellent buying opportunity. The company exhibits exceptionally strong revenue growth (around 40% annually) and holds a dominant market position as the top shopping app in Brazil. A strategic decision to lower shipping thresholds in Q4 successfully drove massive user acquisition, and margins are now expected to expand as the company implements new fee structures. Analysts anticipate continued market share gains in the Latin American e-commerce landscape. A conservative discounted cash flow analysis further underscores its undervaluation and potential for high future returns.

Brookfield Asset Management (BAM) delivered record results in 2025, driven by strong fundraising and significant increases in fee-related and distributable earnings (28% and 18% year-over-year, respectively). The company's margins have expanded to an all-time high. Management projects sustained 20% annual earnings growth for the next five years, fueled by its strategic investments in infrastructure and private equity, particularly leveraging demand from the AI infrastructure buildout, which drives unprecedented demand for power and data centers. BAM is considered well-positioned to benefit from these powerful secular tailwinds and is currently undervalued according to discounted cash flow analysis.

Brookfield Corporation (BN) is viewed as undervalued based on its growth prospects and current market price. The presenter explicitly states his personal preference for BN due to its growth-focused nature, as opposed to Brookfield Asset Management's (BAM) income focus, and holds BN in his portfolio. BN is projected to deliver significant long-term total returns, with a conservative discounted cash flow analysis indicating a fair value well above its current trading price, offering over 22% compounded annual growth. This outlook is supported by management's confidence in achieving 20% annual earnings growth.

Constellation Software (CSU.TO) is seen as a high-quality business currently experiencing an unjustified market sell-off within the software sector, making it an attractive 'drop-dead price' opportunity. The company's fundamentals, including revenue and free cash flow, are at all-time highs and continue to grow robustly. Constellation is actively leveraging AI to develop new products like Stella AI for homebuilders and is securing large cybersecurity contracts with European governments through its branches. This strategy positions it as a net benefactor, rather than a victim, of AI. A conservative discounted cash flow model indicates significant undervaluation, with potential for substantial annual returns.

Topicus.com Inc. (TOI.V), a spin-off subsidiary of Constellation Software, is presented as an undervalued growth opportunity, particularly in the European market. The company is actively securing significant cybersecurity contracts with governments in the Netherlands, demonstrating its ability to leverage Constellation's established playbook. Despite broad market fears surrounding the software sector, Topicus is strategically leveraging artificial intelligence to build new products and agents, positioning it to benefit from AI rather than being disrupted. A conservative discounted cash flow analysis, which accounts for its smaller base compared to Constellation, suggests it is significantly undervalued and capable of delivering high compounded annual growth rates.

The host expresses strong bullish conviction in Constellation Software, actively adding to his position due to its status as a high-quality vertical market software business within a currently "decimated" software sector. He highlights its significant competitive moats, including "mission-critical" software for public sectors, robust distribution networks, and the trust earned by passing regulatory hurdles. The company's vast "goldmine" of proprietary historical data, accumulated from over 1,000 niche software companies, is presented as a unique "high-performance fuel" for AI agents, allowing Constellation to leverage AI as an amplifier for its existing systems rather than being disrupted by it. Financially, Constellation demonstrates consistent organic revenue and free cash flow growth (over 20% annually) with zero shareholder dilution since its IPO. Its current valuation is deemed extremely attractive, trading at a 12-year low price-to-free cash flow multiple of around 15x (compared to historical averages of 24-25x), which also provides better opportunities for serial acquisitions. The host believes the current market fear (FUD) regarding software and AI is illogical for Constellation, presenting a significant buying opportunity.

Amazon reported solid Q4 and full-year 2025 results with double-digit revenue growth across segments, notably driven by AWS's 24% year-over-year acceleration. Despite these strong top-line metrics, the declining operating margin in AWS and a significant increase in projected capital expenditures to $200 billion in 2026 for AI, chips, and satellite initiatives, have led to investor concerns and a post-earnings sell-off. The company's free cash flow for 2025 was minimal, and projections suggest negative free cash flow for 2026. However, the host maintains a long-term bullish stance, viewing current valuation as attractive (trading at a historical low price-to-operating cash flow multiple last seen during the 2009 financial crisis) and believing that current investments are strategic for future growth, despite short-term market skepticism. The host intends to add to his position if the stock remains at these depressed levels.

Google Cloud demonstrated an exceptional performance in Q4 2025, reporting 48% year-over-year revenue growth and doubling its operating margins to 30%, making it a leading player among hyperscalers. Despite this strong segment performance, Google's outlook is clouded by its announcement of $180 billion in capital expenditures for 2026, which is projected to result in the company being free cash flow negative. This significant CapEx spend, also seen with other major cloud providers, raises concerns among investors about increased financial risk, despite the underlying strength of its cloud business.

Microsoft Azure experienced a deceleration in its revenue growth in Q4 2025, which the host attributes as a reason for the stock's weakness post-earnings compared to its peers like Google Cloud. The company is also part of a broader trend among hyperscalers announcing significant capital expenditures for AI initiatives. While this indicates strong investment in growth areas, it has led to market concerns about increased spending and potential impacts on free cash flow and overall financial risk.