Mentions

Adobe is presented as a nuanced case within the broader SaaS disruption narrative. The stock dropped not because Claude Design is better than Photoshop, but because investors are repricing the entire per-seat model across design software. However, the host argues Adobe is not in the same exposed position as pure workflow tools — it can potentially survive by becoming a data aggregator, a specialized creative partner, or a system of record for design work. The real danger for Adobe is losing pricing power even if the platform itself remains important, making this a complex hold rather than a clear buy or sell.

Adobe is called out by name as part of the same group of corrected tech names (with Microsoft and Meta) that are starting to garner the host's attention. While Adobe receives the lightest individual treatment of the three — signaled by the qualifier 'or even Adobe' — the host's 'even mine' remark indicates he is actively considering these as potential buying opportunities following the pullback.

The host calls Adobe potentially the most undervalued stock in his portfolio, describing it as cheaper than a sack of potatoes. The stock recently touched single-digit price-to-free-cash-flow (ex-SBC) and is at ~12x including SBC — a level he characterizes as a commodity multiple implying zero revenue growth over the next decade. He pushes back on the AI-disruption bear case, arguing Adobe owns the point of distribution for creatives, is already integrating AI features, has accelerated revenue growth from 10% to 12%, and is beginning to monetize via AI credits on a consumption basis.

Adobe, at around $244, is flagged as significantly undervalued, with the host citing a forward P/E of approximately 9 as 'ridiculous.' He expects the stock to exit earnings season materially higher, viewing the current valuation as a clear setup opportunity.

The host is strongly bullish on Adobe, which he currently owns. He argues the stock is down ~70% from its highs due to AI disruption fears, but contends Adobe is an aggressive AI integrator (Firefly built into Photoshop/Illustrator) rather than a passive victim. He highlights the business's 89% gross margins, ~28% net margins, nearly $10B in annual free cash flow (greater than net income), and ~10.5% revenue growth over the past three years — inconsistent with a 'dying company' narrative. With the stock trading at ~$244 and only ~13x free cash flow, his DCF analysis (3–9% revenue growth, 18–24x terminal multiple) yields a middle intrinsic value of ~$540, representing a potential 20%+ annualized return on his base-case assumptions — a margin of safety he finds compelling enough to be a buyer.

Adobe is grouped among the three biggest negative positions. The host considers it 'one of the strongest companies in their field' but acknowledges that AI disruption fears have made it a poor performer. He is holding rather than adding, feeling slightly more confident about Adobe than C3.ai, but maintaining a wait-and-see stance.

El presentador analiza en profundidad por qué Adobe ha caído más de un 66% desde máximos históricos y concluye que es una oportunidad de inversión atractiva a largo plazo. Aunque reconoce tres riesgos principales —la amenaza de la IA sobre su negocio, la desaceleración del crecimiento y la incertidumbre por el cambio de CEO— argumenta que el mercado está exagerando el pesimismo. Destaca como fortalezas sus altos costes de cambio, ingresos recurrentes por suscripciones, generación masiva de caja libre y recompras agresivas de acciones. Identifica cinco catalizadores potenciales: la monetización real de la IA a través de Firefly, una reaceleración del crecimiento en Creative Cloud y Document Cloud, un cambio de narrativa en el mercado, el nombramiento de un nuevo CEO con visión clara y la valoración deprimida combinada con las recompras. El presentador declara que personalmente compraría acciones de Adobe a estos niveles construyendo posición poco a poco, aunque advierte que se trata de una tesis de varios años, no de meses.

The host is bullish on Adobe as a deep-value SaaS opportunity, calling its current forward PE of approximately 9 'ridiculous' for the quality of the business. Adobe is a central name in his broader thesis that growth investors have abandoned the SaaS sector and that value investors will gradually step in and re-rate these companies. He views Adobe as among the most undervalued names in the group at current levels.

Adobe is the runner-up to Uber for the host's single highest-conviction 5-year holding. The host acknowledges meaningful fear of a permanent valuation re-rating but believes the stock could still deliver roughly 20% IRR over five years even in that scenario. Adobe is also cited in a hypothetical scenario as an example of a potential value trap — a stock that has failed to reclaim all-time highs for approximately six years — which tempers conviction and keeps the stance neutral rather than outright bullish.