Mentions

El presentador analiza MercadoLibre en profundidad combinando análisis técnico y valoración fundamental. Desde el lado técnico, identifica una tendencia bajista con señales de recuperación (subida del 20% desde mínimos de $1,598), un patrón bullish flag en el gráfico mensual y niveles clave de soporte y resistencia. En cuanto a la valoración, aplica múltiples modelos (crecimiento de EPS, fórmula de Graham, valoración por múltiplos) que arrojan un valor intrínseco promedio aproximado de $1,200 por acción, frente al precio actual de ~$855, lo que implica un descuento considerable. El presentador reconoce las presiones a corto plazo —márgenes bajo presión por inversión en logística y tecnología, y riesgo crediticio en Mercado Pago— pero las encuadra como parte de una estrategia de reinversión agresiva comparable a la de Amazon en sus inicios. La tesis a largo plazo es que MELI es la infraestructura digital de Latinoamérica con una ventaja competitiva difícil de replicar. La conclusión es matizada: no es una ganga evidente, pero el potencial de duplicar valor en 5 años justifica considerarla como oportunidad.

The host reiterates a buy rating on Mercado Libre, originally issued January 19, 2026, despite the stock being down 11% YTD. The bull case rests on three pillars: (1) exceptional revenue growth of ~40% annually over the past three years, with analysts still projecting 24–32% growth through 2028; (2) a dramatically improving cash-flow-to-sales ratio that has risen from 22.5% in 2016 to 42% recently, reflecting operational leverage; and (3) an attractive valuation relative to intrinsic value — the host's proprietary DCF model yields a fair value of $2,600/share versus a current market price of ~$1,793, making it appear even more undervalued than in January. The host also notes MELI's forward P/E of ~35 and forward price-to-operating-cash-flow of ~6.78x compare favorably to Amazon, despite MELI growing nearly three times faster. A key near-term growth catalyst is the company's lowered free-shipping threshold, which is adding millions of new customers and improving per-delivery economics over time. The primary risk acknowledged is the volatile political and macroeconomic environment in Latin America, making this a higher-risk, higher-upside play suited for investors with greater risk tolerance.

The host highlights a reiterated Buy rating on MercadoLibre with a $2,400 price target implying ~35% upside. Key analyst takeaways include steady full-year 2026 operating income of ~$3.6B at 9% margins, higher near-term loan loss provisions from strong credit card issuance, and FX normalization in Argentina supporting earnings stability. The host frames the recent stock decline as a typical 'investment cycle discount'—management investing heavily now to build long-term competitive strength—which he views as a long-term buying opportunity.

The host is bullish on MercadoLibre (referred to as 'Mercado Libre') and has been actively adding to his position during the ~34% drawdown from all-time highs. The sell-off is driven by aggressive reinvestment ($3.4B into Argentina, $11B+ into Brazil) that suppresses reported free cash flow, which the host views as a long-term moat-building strategy rather than a sign of weakness. He adjusts reported FCF of $1.5B upward by adding back $6.7B in credit portfolio investment and $62M in growth capex, arriving at ~$6.4B in underlying cash flow potential — implying just 13.7x cash flow on an $87.6B market cap. Revenue grew 45% YoY in Q4 2025 to a $29B annual run rate. Market share in Brazilian e-commerce has grown from 26% to 42%. The fintech credit portfolio nearly doubled YoY to $12.5B, delinquency rates are declining, and advertising revenue grew ~50% with ~80% margins.

The host is strongly bullish on Mercado Libre, which he describes as the Latin American equivalent of Amazon plus PayPal. He highlights GMV growth accelerating from 8% to 37% YoY and Mercado Pago's total payment volume reaching ~$84B in a single quarter, up 42%. The stock is down due to management's decision to reinvest in fulfillment infrastructure to fend off Amazon, Sea Limited, and Chinese competition, plus concerns over its expanding credit portfolio. However, a reverse DCF analysis shows the stock only needs 7% annual revenue growth to justify its current price, well below its historical 30%+ growth rate. The host views the loan quality (90-day past-due falling from 17.5% to 16.8%) as manageable and believes investors are being compensated for the risk.