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El presentador realiza un análisis completo de Microsoft desde tres ángulos: negocio, valoración y técnico. Destaca sus tres pilares (productividad/software, Azure y computación personal) y la integración de la IA como catalizador estructural, resaltando sus altos márgenes operativos y flujo de caja constante. En el análisis técnico identifica zonas de compra entre los 385–425 USD y por debajo, aunque señala que las acciones están por debajo de la media móvil de 50 sesiones y que el mercado general presenta alta incertidumbre. En la valoración, los modelos arrojan un valor intrínseco entre 263 (con margen de seguridad del 25%) y 553 USD (por múltiplos comparables con Oracle, Google, Nvidia, Amazon y Apple), con un precio futuro proyectado a 10 años de 900 USD. La conclusión es condicionalmente alcista: Microsoft es una empresa excepcional pero no una ganga; recomienda entradas parciales y estratégicas en las zonas técnicas identificadas, advirtiendo que una gran empresa no siempre es una gran inversión si el precio no acompaña.

Microsoft is bullish as a hyperscaler with strong Azure momentum directly tied to AI workload growth. Claude and other frontier models run on Microsoft Foundry, linking each new AI product launch to Azure demand. Microsoft reported 39% Azure growth and $51.5 billion in Microsoft cloud revenue. The host argues that hyperscalers like Microsoft are growing faster than some startups because they are becoming AI factories — hosting models, selling platforms, securing enterprise data, and absorbing infrastructure costs smaller software companies cannot match.

In a tangent within the Google section, the host shares a long-term bullish view on Microsoft despite acknowledging Co-Pilot is currently inferior to rival AI chatbots. The core thesis is that Microsoft's near-universal presence on computers gives it a structural distribution advantage for AI integration that will be easier to monetize over time as the product improves. The host notes Microsoft is one of their largest personal holdings.

Microsoft is referenced in two distinct contexts. First, at [209], it is grouped with Amazon, Alphabet, and Nvidia as an AI infrastructure mega-spender whose heavy capital expenditure is now being punished as market sentiment on AI capex has swung from extremely positive to extremely negative. Later, at [852], the host singles out Microsoft by name as one of the stocks that has corrected enough to start 'garnering his attention,' implying the price-to-earnings power math is beginning to make sense with a margin of safety — placing it in the 'pockets of opportunity' category the host sees in software and tech.

The host places Microsoft in the undervalued bucket, noting its forward PE of roughly 23–27x is meaningfully below its historical norm of ~30x trailing earnings. He pairs this with commentary that revenue growth is tracking at a healthy rate, making the valuation discount relative to history even more attractive. He initially considered disgustingly undervalued but pulled back slightly, settling on simply undervalued.

Microsoft has been in a downtrend since October '25 but is showing its first week of meaningful upside. The host wants two more confirming weeks and a break above $445 before calling a trend change. He raises the possibility this is a short-squeeze rather than a genuine reversal, as shorts since October have been profitable. Shorts appeared to begin covering in the last week of March, with the covering accelerating into mid-April. The host advises waiting for the chart to confirm the direction.

Microsoft is described as one of the worst-performing stocks in the S&P 500, down 21% year-to-date, which the host interprets as the market beginning to reject AI infrastructure spending. Capex has grown from $25 billion in 2022 to $83 billion in 2025 with no sign of slowing, and the host expects Microsoft will be forced to pull back AI infrastructure investment in late 2026 to 2027 as market pressure mounts — a move that would ripple negatively through the broader chip and AI ecosystem.

The host is bullish on Microsoft as the anchor of the hyperscaler platform layer in Project Glasswing. Microsoft hosts Mythos, deploys it internally, and is expected to fold it into its server-side security offerings over time. The host highlights that Microsoft already runs the largest cloud security business on the planet at roughly $28.5B annually. The strategic frame is not incremental cloud revenue but systemic risk management across the AI and internet infrastructure that Microsoft operates — positioning it as a long-term beneficiary of the shift toward predictive, AI-driven cyber defense.

Microsoft is flagged as a heavily beaten-down and hated stock that the host expects will deliver strong earnings results and solid forward guidance. He anticipates the stock will trade higher as those results come in and investor sentiment normalizes.

The host is moderately bullish on Microsoft following an updated DCF model. After nudging revenue growth and margin assumptions slightly upward in response to viewer feedback, the probability-weighted fair value implies 18.4–20.2% upside, with the base case at 10.6–12.5% and the bull case near 45%. He also flags a positive technical development: Microsoft is beginning to decouple from SaaS and cybersecurity names that previously dragged it lower, which he views as an encouraging market signal. He maintains conservative outer-year revenue growth assumptions (low double digits) but sees the risk/reward as favorable.

The host conducts a detailed three-scenario DCF on Microsoft at ~$382/share. The probability-weighted fair value is roughly 12–13% above current price, the bull case offers 43.6% upside driven by margin expansion back to ~52%, and the bear case (-46.7%) hinges on heavy capex failing to pay off. The host describes Microsoft as a 'quality company' and suggests the bull scenario's growth rates and margins are realistic, while acknowledging the base case upside is modest. Forward PE is 21.1x with the stock down 19.2% YTD.

Microsoft is the host's single largest March purchase at $35 and his explicit number-one buying target among all negative positions. He 'can't believe how low it continues to trade,' plans to be a 'huge buyer' at current levels, and cites 'giant rebound potential.' He has the highest conviction of any holding in the portfolio for this name and says the fact that it is negative only makes him want to buy more aggressively.

The host questions whether Microsoft has become too cheap to ignore, pointing to a forward P/E of 20.5x against projected revenue growth of ~16% annually through fiscal 2028 toward $444B. The host argues the market is unjustifiably grouping Microsoft with the broader software/cybersecurity selloff, citing durable competitive moats in Windows, Microsoft 365, Azure, and its stakes in OpenAI and Anthropic. The host frames Microsoft alongside Meta as one of the clearest 'no-brainer' large-cap opportunities right now, teasing an upcoming DCF upload, and explicitly asks whether the stock is 'now too cheap to ignore.'

El presentador es alcista en Microsoft tras una caída de aproximadamente el 25% desde máximos históricos. Explica que la bajada no se debe a un deterioro del negocio, sino a que las expectativas del mercado eran demasiado elevadas respecto al impacto inmediato de la IA. Identifica tres catalizadores principales: (1) una posible reaceleración del crecimiento de Azure, que ya está integrado en miles de empresas; (2) la monetización de Copilot, donde incluso un pequeño aumento del ingreso por usuario sobre cientos de millones de clientes empresariales puede traducirse en miles de millones de dólares; y (3) una valoración ahora mucho más razonable que reduce la exigencia de resultados perfectos. El presentador concluye que Microsoft sigue siendo uno de los mejores negocios del mundo —con ingresos recurrentes, enorme caja y posición dominante en software, nube e IA— y que representa una oportunidad de compra atractiva para horizontes de 3, 5 o 10 años, aunque advierte que puede haber volatilidad a corto plazo.

The host is bullish on Microsoft, highlighting that it is trading at its 200-day exponential moving average for the first time in over 13 years — a setup the host frames as a rare long-term buying opportunity characteristic of the level Charlie Munger reportedly favored. Despite being down 20%+ year-to-date and the second-worst Magnificent 7 performer, Microsoft has grown revenues, gross profits, and EPS by approximately 15% from an already large base. DCF models peg fair value at ~$450/share with some analyst targets above $500, implying 17–25% undervaluation and 20–33% upside from current prices.